トリチウムの初期供給と継続供給

I evaluate when a receiver’s initial tritium requirement becomes a continuing external supply obligation. A serial aggregate fuel-cycle model gives a closed maintenance threshold in the inner-loop non-return fraction. For the declared parameters, including loop decay and a maintained 1.944 kg reserve lowers that threshold from 7.99 × 10⁻⁴ to 7.34 × 10⁻⁴. A 10⁻³ non-return fraction requires at least 0.757 kg/year of continuing receipts in the continuous-maintenance limit; fixed-cadence delivery adds storage and transit decay. A controlled comparison holds non-return fixed when varying reserves. I convert the full receiver trajectory into dated, batched requests and evaluate them against stochastic supplier histories, capacity constraints, customer priorities and qualification holds. Counterfactual pairs share the same operating appointments. The fixed 41-date benchmark supports no admissible start under its 1% total missed-commitment criterion; this is a result for the specified supply system, not a deployment forecast. Source replenishment and receiver needs are evaluated over matching horizons, while rejected tritium remains in the full-site inventory. Separate single-order experiments show the trade-off between incumbent protection and new-customer delay. The contribution is a reproducible interface from a declared fuel-cycle margin to customer-resolved supply commitments within established inventory theory. It provides pre-feasibility consistency tests, rather than validated operating limits or a new general self-sufficiency criterion.